Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 14–17 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 17.0% | 15.9–18.2% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.8–19.4% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 15.5% | 14.4–16.7% | 14.1–17.0% | 13.8–17.3% | 13.3–17.8% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 13.1% | 12.1–14.2% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.6–14.8% | 11.1–15.3% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.6–10.5% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.2–11.0% | 7.8–11.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.7–6.6% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.3–7.2% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.9% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.6–4.9% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.0–4.1% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.0–4.1% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 25 | 25 | 25–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 26 | 26 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 22–29 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 20 | 20 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 19–22 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 15 | 15 | 14–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 8 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 25 | 87% | 96% | Median |
| 26 | 2% | 9% | |
| 27 | 6% | 7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 26 | 87% | 92% | Median |
| 27 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 5% | |
| 29 | 5% | 5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 91% | 99.3% | Median |
| 21 | 7% | 8% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 5% | 96% | |
| 15 | 87% | 91% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 8 | 90% | 97% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 7% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 96% | |
| 7 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 93% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 1 | 98.8% | 99.0% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 91% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 76 | 99.0% | 76 | 76 | 76–77 | 71–81 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 71 | 1.0% | 71–72 | 71–72 | 71–72 | 68–77 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 | 75 | 58 | 0% | 58–59 | 58–60 | 58–62 | 56–63 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 56 | 0% | 56 | 55–56 | 55–56 | 53–59 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 56 | 0% | 55–56 | 53–56 | 52–56 | 49–56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 51 | 0% | 51 | 50–53 | 49–53 | 46–55 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 70 | 49 | 0% | 49 | 47–52 | 47–53 | 47–53 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 51 | 51 | 0% | 51 | 51–52 | 51–52 | 48–55 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 50 | 0% | 50 | 48–50 | 47–50 | 45–50 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 45 | 0% | 45 | 45–48 | 43–48 | 43–48 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 61 | 42 | 0% | 42 | 42–46 | 40–48 | 40–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 78 | 43 | 0% | 43 | 43–45 | 43–46 | 41–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 46 | 0% | 46 | 44–46 | 43–46 | 41–47 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 37 | 0% | 37 | 37–39 | 35–43 | 35–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 42 | 0% | 42 | 38–42 | 38–42 | 36–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 41 | 0% | 41 | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 38 | 0% | 38 | 38–41 | 36–41 | 35–41 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 37 | 35 | 0% | 35 | 34–37 | 32–38 | 32–38 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 36 | 0% | 36 | 33–36 | 33–37 | 32–37 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 35 | 0% | 35 | 32–36 | 32–37 | 31–37 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 31 | 0% | 31 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 26–33 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 30 | 0% | 30 | 30–31 | 27–32 | 27–32 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 12 | 0% | 12 | 12 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 95% | 99.0% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 87% | 99.1% | Median |
| 72 | 11% | 12% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 87% | 99.2% | Median |
| 59 | 4% | 13% | |
| 60 | 4% | 9% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 62 | 3% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 57 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 96% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 55 | 5% | 92% | |
| 56 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 51 | 87% | 92% | Median |
| 52 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 53 | 4% | 5% | |
| 54 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0% | 95% | |
| 49 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 50 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 94% | 98.9% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 4% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 48 | 4% | 96% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 50 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 45 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 46 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 48 | 7% | 8% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0% | 96% | |
| 42 | 88% | 96% | Median |
| 43 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 46 | 4% | 7% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 48 | 3% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 91% | 99.2% | Median |
| 44 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 4% | 8% | |
| 46 | 4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 44 | 4% | 96% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 46 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 47 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 4% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 96% | |
| 37 | 87% | 96% | Median |
| 38 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 39 | 4% | 8% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 43 | 3% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 6% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 42 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 3% | 95% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 41 | 88% | 92% | Median |
| 42 | 4% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 38 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 39 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 8% | |
| 41 | 5% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 34 | 2% | 96% | |
| 35 | 87% | 94% | Median |
| 36 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 38 | 4% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 36 | 88% | 92% | Median |
| 37 | 4% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 3% | 95% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 35 | 87% | 92% | Median |
| 36 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 37 | 4% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 3% | 95% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 31 | 87% | 92% | Median |
| 32 | 0% | 5% | |
| 33 | 5% | 5% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 30 | 88% | 95% | Median |
| 31 | 4% | 7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 96% | 99.8% | Median |
| 13 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1718
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.55%