Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 18–19 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 18.6% | 17.7–19.5% | 17.5–19.8% | 17.2–20.0% | 16.8–20.5% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 17.3% | 16.4–18.2% | 16.2–18.4% | 15.9–18.7% | 15.5–19.1% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 14.0% | 13.2–14.8% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.4–15.7% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.9–13.4% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 30 | 28–30 | 28–30 | 27–33 | 27–33 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 26 | 26 | 26–27 | 25–27 | 24–29 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 19 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–26 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 7 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–10 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–11 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| DENK | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 19% | 97% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 30 | 74% | 77% | Median |
| 31 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 33 | 3% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 26 | 90% | 97% | Median |
| 27 | 6% | 7% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 72% | 99.9% | Median |
| 20 | 4% | 28% | |
| 21 | 17% | 24% | |
| 22 | 3% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 16% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 4% | 83% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 79% | |
| 21 | 6% | 78% | |
| 22 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 72% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 28% | |
| 9 | 8% | 25% | |
| 10 | 17% | 18% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 75% | 97% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 22% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 98% | |
| 8 | 92% | 94% | Median |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 19% | 97% | |
| 8 | 3% | 78% | |
| 9 | 73% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 92% | 94% | Median |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 4 | 98% | 98.6% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 83 | 100% | 83–84 | 83–86 | 83–89 | 82–89 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 75 | 11% | 75–77 | 75–78 | 75–80 | 74–80 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 68 | 0% | 64–68 | 63–68 | 62–69 | 61–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 64 | 0% | 63–64 | 63–64 | 61–69 | 61–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 64 | 0% | 62–64 | 62–64 | 61–67 | 60–67 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 65 | 0% | 60–65 | 60–65 | 60–67 | 59–67 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 60 | 0% | 55–60 | 55–60 | 55–63 | 54–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 57 | 0% | 57–58 | 57–60 | 57–62 | 55–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 56 | 0% | 54–56 | 54–56 | 53–60 | 52–60 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 55 | 0% | 54–55 | 52–55 | 52–56 | 51–57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 78 | 50 | 0% | 49–50 | 47–50 | 46–52 | 46–52 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 45 | 0% | 45–47 | 45–49 | 45–49 | 45–52 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 73 | 46 | 0% | 45–46 | 43–46 | 43–49 | 42–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 46 | 0% | 46–47 | 44–47 | 43–48 | 43–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 46 | 0% | 46 | 44–46 | 42–48 | 42–48 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 61 | 46 | 0% | 46–47 | 45–47 | 45–47 | 43–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 43 | 0% | 43 | 42–43 | 41–46 | 40–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 43 | 0% | 42–43 | 41–43 | 40–46 | 39–46 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 56 | 42 | 0% | 42–43 | 42–43 | 41–43 | 40–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 38 | 0% | 37–38 | 37–38 | 35–42 | 34–42 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 38 | 0% | 38–39 | 38–39 | 36–39 | 35–40 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 34 | 0% | 34–35 | 34–36 | 32–36 | 31–37 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 39 | 16 | 0% | 16–17 | 16–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 83 | 73% | 99.2% | Median |
| 84 | 18% | 26% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 86 | 3% | 8% | |
| 87 | 2% | 5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 89 | 3% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 88% | 99.3% | Median |
| 76 | 0.5% | 11% | Majority |
| 77 | 5% | 11% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 3% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 64 | 16% | 95% | |
| 65 | 3% | 79% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 68 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 69 | 3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 63 | 17% | 95% | |
| 64 | 75% | 78% | Median |
| 65 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 3% | |
| 69 | 3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 16% | 95% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 64 | 75% | 78% | Median |
| 65 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 19% | 98% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 63 | 2% | 77% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 65 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 66 | 0% | 3% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 17% | 98% | |
| 56 | 3% | 81% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 78% | |
| 58 | 2% | 77% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 60 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 61 | 0% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 3% | |
| 63 | 3% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 73% | 98.8% | Median |
| 58 | 16% | 26% | |
| 59 | 3% | 10% | |
| 60 | 2% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 5% | |
| 62 | 3% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 18% | 97% | |
| 55 | 2% | 79% | |
| 56 | 73% | 77% | Median |
| 57 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 3% | |
| 60 | 3% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 2% | 94% | |
| 54 | 17% | 92% | |
| 55 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 49 | 17% | 94% | |
| 50 | 73% | 78% | Median |
| 51 | 2% | 5% | |
| 52 | 3% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 72% | 99.8% | Median |
| 46 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 47 | 21% | 27% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 3% | 6% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 45 | 17% | 94% | |
| 46 | 73% | 78% | Median |
| 47 | 2% | 5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 49 | 3% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 3% | 97% | |
| 45 | 3% | 95% | |
| 46 | 73% | 92% | Median |
| 47 | 16% | 19% | |
| 48 | 3% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 95% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 46 | 88% | 92% | Median |
| 47 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 3% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 76% | 93% | Median |
| 47 | 16% | 17% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 3% | 97% | |
| 43 | 90% | 94% | Median |
| 44 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 3% | |
| 46 | 3% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 3% | 97% | |
| 42 | 19% | 94% | |
| 43 | 72% | 76% | Median |
| 44 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 3% | |
| 46 | 3% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 77% | 97% | Median |
| 43 | 19% | 20% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 37 | 20% | 96% | |
| 38 | 73% | 76% | Median |
| 39 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 3% | |
| 42 | 3% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 38 | 73% | 95% | Median |
| 39 | 22% | 23% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 98% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 34 | 75% | 97% | Median |
| 35 | 16% | 22% | |
| 36 | 5% | 6% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 77% | 96% | Median |
| 17 | 19% | 19% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.10%