Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 June–1 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.4–37.3% 30.5–38.3%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 17.5% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.6% 15.3–20.0% 14.6–20.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 3 3 3 3–4 3–4
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100% Last Result
3 96% 99.8% Median
4 3% 3% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 90% 100% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 57% 57% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 38% 38% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 90% 100% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 38% 38% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 57% 57% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond (*)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations