Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 14.7% | 12.1–16.8% | 11.6–17.4% | 11.2–17.9% | 10.5–18.8% |
| 4–10 November 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| 28 October–3 November 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–30 October 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 16.0% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.1–18.1% | 13.7–18.5% | 13.0–19.4% |
| 21–28 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.8% | 11.5–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.3–15.7% |
| 14–21 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
15.7% | 14.3–17.3% | 13.9–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 12.9–18.9% |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
14.9% | 13.8–16.1% | 13.4–16.5% | 13.2–16.8% | 12.7–17.4% |
| 7–14 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–10 October 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 September–6 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–29 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
13.3% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.6–15.2% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.3% |
| 16–23 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 September 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
16.0% | 14.8–17.2% | 14.5–17.6% | 14.2–17.9% | 13.7–18.5% |
| 9–14 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 29 August–12 September 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 15.8% | 14.3–17.5% | 13.9–18.0% | 13.6–18.4% | 12.9–19.2% |
| 2–8 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
11.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| 26 August–1 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
17.0% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.2–19.2% | 14.8–19.6% | 14.1–20.4% |
| 19–25 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
18.9% | 17.4–20.6% | 16.9–21.1% | 16.6–21.5% | 15.9–22.4% |
| 15–21 August 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.6–20.7% |
| 12–19 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
16.2% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.2% | 14.0–18.6% | 13.4–19.4% |
| 5–11 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 16.8% | 15.3–18.5% | 14.8–19.0% | 14.5–19.4% | 13.8–20.2% |
| 23 July–4 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| 22–29 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
17.8% | 16.3–19.4% | 15.9–19.9% | 15.5–20.3% | 14.9–21.1% |
| 15–22 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 July 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
17.1% | 15.9–18.4% | 15.6–18.8% | 15.3–19.1% | 14.8–19.8% |
| 8–12 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–5 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–24 June 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 June 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–17 June 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 17.0% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.7–19.6% | 13.9–20.4% |
| 3–10 June 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 11% | 95% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 14% | 85% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 18% | 71% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 15.5–16.5% | 18% | 30% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 9% | 13% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 4–10 November 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 28 October–3 November 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 24–30 October 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 21–28 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14–21 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 7–14 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 1–10 October 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | |||||
| 30 September–6 October 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 23–29 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16–23 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 12–18 September 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 9–14 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 29 August–12 September 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 2–8 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 26 August–1 September 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 19–25 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–21 August 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 12–19 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 5–11 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 23 July–4 August 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 22–29 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–22 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 11–17 July 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–12 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 1–5 July 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 17–24 June 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 10–17 June 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
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| 10–17 June 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
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| 1–11 June 2024 | Turu-uuringute AS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 3–10 June 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |