Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Ref | Kesk | Isamaa | SDE | EKRE | Rohelised | EVA | E200 | Kaljulaid | EP | EÜVP | Koos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 24.3% 2 |
22.4% 1 |
13.9% 1 |
13.6% 1 |
4.0% 0 |
0.3% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 17–21% 1–2 |
9–15% 0–1 |
15–19% 1–2 |
18–23% 2 |
12–19% 1–2 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
3–6% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0 |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0 |
| 29 April–6 May 2024 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
18–21% 1–2 |
8–10% 0–1 |
16–18% 1–2 |
20–23% 2 |
17–19% 1–2 |
1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–5% 0 |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0 |
| 8–17 April 2024 | Kantar Emor ERR |
17–21% 1–2 |
12–16% 1 |
15–19% 1–2 |
18–22% 2 |
12–16% 1 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–6% 0 |
N/A N/A |
5–7% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 24.3% 2 |
22.4% 1 |
13.9% 1 |
13.6% 1 |
4.0% 0 |
0.3% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- Ref: Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
- Kesk: Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
- Isamaa: Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
- SDE: Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
- EKRE: Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
- Rohelised: Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
- EVA: Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
- E200: Eesti 200 (RE)
- Kaljulaid: Raimond Kaljulaid (RE)
- EP: Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
- EÜVP: Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
- Koos: Koos (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 24.3% | 19.1% | 17.9–20.1% | 17.5–20.4% | 17.2–20.7% | 16.5–21.3% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 22.4% | 11.1% | 9.0–14.6% | 8.8–15.0% | 8.6–15.4% | 8.3–16.0% |
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 13.9% | 17.0% | 15.9–18.0% | 15.6–18.3% | 15.2–18.6% | 14.6–19.2% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 13.6% | 20.9% | 19.2–22.0% | 18.7–22.4% | 18.4–22.6% | 17.7–23.1% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 4.0% | 16.3% | 13.1–18.4% | 12.7–18.7% | 12.4–19.0% | 11.9–19.4% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.4% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Eesti 200 (RE) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.2–6.1% |
| Raimond Kaljulaid (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 4.0–7.1% | 3.7–7.6% |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.7–3.4% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 21% | 95% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 45% | 74% | Median |
| 19.5–20.5% | 25% | 29% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 29% | 98% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 18% | 69% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.8% | 51% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 3% | 50% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 15% | 47% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 21% | 32% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 9% | 11% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 25% | 95% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 47% | 70% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 21% | 23% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 13% | 96% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 24% | 84% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 21% | 24% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 15% | 97% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 21% | 82% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 9% | 61% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 14% | 49% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 27% | 35% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 77% | 99.8% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 23% | 23% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 28% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 32% | 71% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 29% | 40% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 10% | 10% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 7% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 59% | 93% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 29% | 34% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 92% | 96% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Eesti 200 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raimond Kaljulaid (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 89% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 99.3% | 99.3% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Raimond Kaljulaid (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Raimond Kaljulaid (RE) page.
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) – Eesti Keskerakond (RE) – Eesti 200 (RE) – Raimond Kaljulaid (RE) | 3 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 1 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond () – Koos () | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) – Eesti Keskerakond (RE) – Eesti 200 (RE) – Raimond Kaljulaid (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 82% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 99.3% | 99.3% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Vabaerakond () – Koos ()
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 2
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.10%