Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 18–24 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
34.5% |
32.8–36.2% |
32.4–36.7% |
31.9–37.1% |
31.2–37.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
19.4% |
18.0–20.9% |
17.6–21.3% |
17.3–21.6% |
16.7–22.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.3% |
14.1–16.7% |
13.8–17.1% |
13.5–17.4% |
12.9–18.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.8% |
9.8–12.0% |
9.5–12.3% |
9.2–12.6% |
8.8–13.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
7.9% |
7.0–8.9% |
6.8–9.2% |
6.6–9.5% |
6.1–10.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.8% |
6.0–7.8% |
5.8–8.1% |
5.6–8.3% |
5.2–8.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
6% |
6% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
10% |
100% |
|
2 |
90% |
90% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.7% |
98.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
10% |
100% |
|
2 |
90% |
90% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.7% |
98.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 18–24 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1305
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%