Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 10–16 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
32.7% |
31.0–34.5% |
30.5–35.0% |
30.1–35.5% |
29.3–36.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.7% |
16.3–19.2% |
15.9–19.6% |
15.6–20.0% |
15.0–20.7% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
16.8% |
15.4–18.2% |
15.0–18.6% |
14.7–19.0% |
14.1–19.7% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
12.5% |
11.4–13.8% |
11.0–14.2% |
10.7–14.5% |
10.2–15.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.5% |
8.5–10.7% |
8.2–11.0% |
7.9–11.3% |
7.5–11.9% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.3% |
5.4–7.3% |
5.2–7.5% |
5.0–7.8% |
4.6–8.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.1% |
1.9–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
99.7% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
76% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
24% |
24% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
7% |
7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
33% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
67% |
67% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
7% |
7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1182
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.13%