Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 7–13 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.4% |
25.9–29.0% |
25.5–29.4% |
25.2–29.8% |
24.5–30.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.3% |
17.1–19.7% |
16.7–20.1% |
16.4–20.5% |
15.8–21.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.1% |
14.9–17.4% |
14.5–17.8% |
14.2–18.1% |
13.7–18.7% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
16.1% |
14.9–17.4% |
14.5–17.8% |
14.2–18.1% |
13.7–18.7% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.4% |
8.4–10.5% |
8.2–10.8% |
8.0–11.0% |
7.5–11.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.1% |
5.4–7.0% |
5.2–7.3% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.6–7.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.8–5.5% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
36% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
64% |
64% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
42% |
100% |
|
2 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
71% |
71% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
42% |
100% |
|
2 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 7–13 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1407
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.66%