Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 17–27 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
25.0% |
23.1–27.0% |
22.6–27.6% |
22.1–28.1% |
21.3–29.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
24.0% |
22.2–26.0% |
21.6–26.6% |
21.2–27.1% |
20.3–28.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.9% |
16.3–19.8% |
15.9–20.3% |
15.5–20.7% |
14.7–21.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.5% |
8.4–11.9% |
8.1–12.3% |
7.6–13.0% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
6.9–9.4% |
6.6–9.8% |
6.4–10.1% |
5.9–10.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.1% |
6.0–8.4% |
5.7–8.7% |
5.5–9.0% |
5.0–9.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.1% |
2.0–4.4% |
1.7–4.9% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.0% |
0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
17% |
17% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
41% |
100% |
|
2 |
59% |
59% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
89% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
77% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
23% |
23% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
41% |
100% |
|
2 |
59% |
59% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
89% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 17–27 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 808
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.59%