Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor, 1–31 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
30.0% |
28.0–32.0% |
27.5–32.6% |
27.0–33.1% |
26.1–34.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.0% |
15.5–18.8% |
15.1–19.3% |
14.7–19.7% |
14.0–20.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
16.0% |
14.5–17.7% |
14.1–18.2% |
13.7–18.6% |
13.0–19.4% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
14.0% |
12.5–15.6% |
12.1–16.0% |
11.8–16.4% |
11.2–17.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.4% |
7.6–10.8% |
7.3–11.1% |
6.8–11.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.6–9.7% |
6.4–10.0% |
5.9–10.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.3% |
1.8–4.8% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.0% |
0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
77% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
23% |
23% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
7% |
7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
41% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
59% |
59% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
15% |
15% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
7% |
7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
15% |
15% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 874
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.54%