Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–9 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.7% |
26.9–30.6% |
26.4–31.1% |
26.0–31.6% |
25.1–32.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
18.6–23.6% |
17.8–24.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
16.4% |
15.0–18.0% |
14.6–18.4% |
14.2–18.8% |
13.6–19.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.2% |
9.1–11.5% |
8.7–11.9% |
8.5–12.2% |
8.0–12.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.7% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.4–10.3% |
7.1–10.6% |
6.6–11.2% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.5% |
4.2–8.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.7% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.7% |
1.9–3.9% |
1.6–4.3% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
18% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
82% |
82% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
|
1 |
91% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
76% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
24% |
24% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
|
1 |
91% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.05%