Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 10–16 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
26.2% |
24.6–28.0% |
24.1–28.5% |
23.7–29.0% |
22.9–29.8% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
22.2% |
20.6–23.9% |
20.1–24.3% |
19.8–24.8% |
19.0–25.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.2% |
18.7–21.8% |
18.2–22.3% |
17.9–22.7% |
17.1–23.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
12.1% |
10.9–13.5% |
10.6–13.9% |
10.3–14.2% |
9.7–14.9% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.1% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.7–10.7% |
7.5–11.0% |
7.0–11.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.1% |
5.0–7.4% |
4.8–7.7% |
4.4–8.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.8% |
2.3–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
4% |
4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
27% |
100% |
|
2 |
73% |
73% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.9% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.1% |
99.1% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
25% |
25% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
27% |
100% |
|
2 |
73% |
73% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
25% |
25% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1056
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.48%