Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–18 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.9% |
27.2–30.7% |
26.7–31.2% |
26.3–31.6% |
25.5–32.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.9% |
19.4–22.6% |
19.0–23.0% |
18.6–23.4% |
18.0–24.2% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.0% |
15.6–18.5% |
15.2–18.9% |
14.9–19.3% |
14.3–20.1% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.0% |
11.8–14.3% |
11.4–14.7% |
11.1–15.1% |
10.6–15.7% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.3% |
10.5–13.7% |
10.2–14.0% |
9.7–14.7% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.9% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.7–5.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.2–3.9% |
2.1–4.1% |
1.9–4.5% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
81% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
19% |
19% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
19% |
100% |
|
2 |
81% |
81% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.4% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.6% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
19% |
100% |
|
2 |
81% |
81% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.6% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1118
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%