Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–20 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
34.7% |
32.8–36.7% |
32.3–37.2% |
31.8–37.7% |
30.9–38.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
22.3% |
20.7–24.1% |
20.2–24.6% |
19.8–25.0% |
19.1–25.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.1% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.2–20.2% |
15.8–20.6% |
15.2–21.4% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.4% |
6.9–9.8% |
6.6–10.1% |
6.2–10.7% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
6.5% |
5.6–7.6% |
5.3–7.9% |
5.1–8.2% |
4.7–8.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.2% |
4.4–6.2% |
4.2–6.5% |
4.0–6.8% |
3.6–7.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.3% |
1.8–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
1.5–3.4% |
1.3–3.8% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
79% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
21% |
21% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.6% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
38% |
100% |
|
2 |
62% |
62% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
16% |
16% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
38% |
100% |
|
2 |
62% |
62% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
16% |
16% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 15–20 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.62%