Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–12 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.9% |
27.1–30.8% |
26.6–31.3% |
26.2–31.8% |
25.3–32.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
24.8% |
23.1–26.6% |
22.6–27.1% |
22.2–27.6% |
21.4–28.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.9% |
16.4–19.5% |
16.0–20.0% |
15.7–20.4% |
15.0–21.2% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.4% |
6.9–9.8% |
6.6–10.1% |
6.2–10.7% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.7% |
6.6–10.0% |
6.1–10.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.5% |
4.2–8.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.3% |
1.8–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
1.5–3.4% |
1.3–3.8% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
11% |
11% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
45% |
100% |
|
2 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
33% |
33% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
45% |
100% |
|
2 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
33% |
33% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 6–12 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%