Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 1–30 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.9% |
26.3–29.6% |
25.9–30.0% |
25.5–30.5% |
24.8–31.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.9% |
17.6–20.4% |
17.2–20.8% |
16.9–21.2% |
16.2–21.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.9% |
17.6–20.4% |
17.2–20.8% |
16.9–21.2% |
16.2–21.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
12.9% |
11.8–14.2% |
11.5–14.6% |
11.2–14.9% |
10.7–15.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.9% |
8.9–11.1% |
8.6–11.4% |
8.4–11.7% |
7.9–12.3% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.6–6.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.5% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
65% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
35% |
35% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
55% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
45% |
45% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
53% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
47% |
47% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
|
1 |
74% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
53% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
47% |
47% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
|
1 |
74% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1268
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.24%