Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–9 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
33.6% |
31.7–35.6% |
31.2–36.1% |
30.7–36.6% |
29.9–37.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
26.4% |
24.7–28.2% |
24.2–28.8% |
23.8–29.2% |
23.0–30.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
15.6% |
14.2–17.2% |
13.8–17.6% |
13.5–18.0% |
12.8–18.7% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.5% |
7.5–9.7% |
7.2–10.1% |
6.9–10.4% |
6.5–11.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.4% |
7.4–9.6% |
7.1–10.0% |
6.8–10.3% |
6.4–10.9% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
4.6% |
3.9–5.6% |
3.6–5.8% |
3.5–6.1% |
3.1–6.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
90% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
10% |
10% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
32% |
32% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
70% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
30% |
30% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
25% |
25% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
25% |
25% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 2–9 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%