Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
34.7% |
32.8–36.7% |
32.3–37.2% |
31.8–37.7% |
30.9–38.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
21.6% |
20.0–23.3% |
19.5–23.8% |
19.2–24.3% |
18.4–25.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
14.3% |
13.0–15.8% |
12.6–16.2% |
12.3–16.6% |
11.6–17.4% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.4% |
6.9–9.8% |
6.6–10.1% |
6.2–10.7% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.7% |
6.6–10.0% |
6.1–10.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
4.8% |
4.0–5.8% |
3.8–6.1% |
3.6–6.3% |
3.3–6.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.2% |
2.6–4.0% |
2.4–4.3% |
2.3–4.5% |
2.0–4.9% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.4% |
1.0–2.0% |
0.9–2.2% |
0.8–2.3% |
0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
56% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
44% |
44% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.3% |
99.8% |
Median |
3 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.1% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
29% |
29% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.1% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
29% |
29% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 15–21 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%