Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 13–18 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.0% |
26.4–29.7% |
26.0–30.1% |
25.6–30.5% |
24.9–31.3% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.7–19.5% |
16.3–19.9% |
16.0–20.2% |
15.4–20.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.0% |
15.7–18.4% |
15.3–18.8% |
15.0–19.2% |
14.4–19.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.4–17.8% |
14.1–18.1% |
13.5–18.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.0% |
9.0–11.1% |
8.7–11.5% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.0–12.3% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.0% |
5.2–7.0% |
5.0–7.2% |
4.8–7.5% |
4.5–7.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
1.9–4.4% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.5–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
38% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
62% |
62% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
64% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
36% |
36% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
10% |
10% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 13–18 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1282
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.59%