Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17–23 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
29.6% |
27.8–31.5% |
27.3–32.0% |
26.9–32.5% |
26.0–33.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
18.6–23.6% |
17.8–24.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
14.8% |
13.4–16.3% |
13.1–16.8% |
12.7–17.1% |
12.1–17.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
13.1% |
11.8–14.6% |
11.5–15.0% |
11.1–15.3% |
10.6–16.1% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.4% |
8.3–10.7% |
8.0–11.1% |
7.7–11.4% |
7.3–12.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.5% |
5.6–7.6% |
5.3–7.9% |
5.1–8.2% |
4.7–8.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
30% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
70% |
70% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
38% |
38% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
38% |
38% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 17–23 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.76%