Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 3–9 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.0% |
25.4–28.6% |
25.0–29.1% |
24.6–29.5% |
23.9–30.3% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.7–19.5% |
16.3–19.9% |
16.0–20.2% |
15.4–20.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.0% |
15.7–18.4% |
15.3–18.8% |
15.0–19.2% |
14.4–19.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.4–17.8% |
14.1–18.1% |
13.5–18.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.0% |
8.0–10.1% |
7.8–10.4% |
7.5–10.7% |
7.1–11.2% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.0% |
6.2–8.0% |
5.9–8.3% |
5.7–8.6% |
5.4–9.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.6–6.8% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
33% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
67% |
67% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
40% |
100% |
|
2 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
29% |
29% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
94% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
64% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
36% |
36% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
29% |
29% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
64% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
36% |
36% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 3–9 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1282
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.23%