Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–21 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.1% |
26.3–30.0% |
25.8–30.5% |
25.4–31.0% |
24.6–31.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
20.9% |
19.3–22.6% |
18.9–23.1% |
18.5–23.5% |
17.8–24.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
17.3% |
15.8–18.9% |
15.4–19.4% |
15.1–19.8% |
14.4–20.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
15.9% |
14.5–17.5% |
14.1–17.9% |
13.8–18.3% |
13.1–19.1% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.4% |
6.4–8.6% |
6.2–8.9% |
5.9–9.2% |
5.5–9.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
6.4% |
5.5–7.5% |
5.3–7.8% |
5.0–8.1% |
4.6–8.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.5–3.0% |
1.4–3.2% |
1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
25% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
75% |
75% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
78% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
22% |
22% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 16–21 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.88%