Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.7% |
26.9–30.6% |
26.4–31.1% |
26.0–31.6% |
25.1–32.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
21.8% |
20.2–23.5% |
19.7–24.0% |
19.3–24.5% |
18.6–25.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
16.3% |
14.9–17.9% |
14.5–18.3% |
14.1–18.7% |
13.5–19.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
14.2% |
12.9–15.7% |
12.5–16.1% |
12.2–16.5% |
11.6–17.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.5% |
6.5–8.7% |
6.2–9.0% |
6.0–9.3% |
5.6–9.9% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.8% |
5.2–9.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.7% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.7% |
1.9–3.9% |
1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.7% |
99.7% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%