Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and PostimeesA, 14–19 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.0% |
25.4–28.7% |
25.0–29.1% |
24.6–29.6% |
23.8–30.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
19.0% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.3–21.0% |
16.9–21.3% |
16.3–22.1% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
17.0% |
15.7–18.4% |
15.3–18.8% |
15.0–19.2% |
14.4–19.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
14.0% |
12.8–15.4% |
12.5–15.8% |
12.2–16.1% |
11.6–16.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.0% |
8.0–10.2% |
7.8–10.5% |
7.5–10.8% |
7.1–11.3% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.1% |
6.9–9.4% |
6.6–9.7% |
6.2–10.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.7% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
58% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
42% |
42% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
22% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
78% |
78% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
81% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
19% |
19% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
52% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
48% |
48% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
52% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
48% |
48% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and PostimeesA
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1219
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%