Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 12–21 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
25.2% |
23.5–27.0% |
23.0–27.5% |
22.6–28.0% |
21.8–28.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.7% |
17.1–20.3% |
16.7–20.8% |
16.4–21.2% |
15.7–22.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
15.9% |
14.5–17.4% |
14.1–17.9% |
13.7–18.3% |
13.1–19.0% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.1% |
11.8–14.6% |
11.5–15.0% |
11.2–15.3% |
10.6–16.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.4% |
6.5–8.6% |
6.2–8.9% |
6.0–9.2% |
5.5–9.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.7% |
4.8–6.7% |
4.6–7.0% |
4.4–7.3% |
4.0–7.8% |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0.0% |
4.7% |
3.9–5.6% |
3.7–5.9% |
3.5–6.2% |
3.2–6.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.8% |
2.2–3.6% |
2.1–3.8% |
1.9–4.0% |
1.7–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
42% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Eesti Vabaerakond (*) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Vabaerakond (*)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–21 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.27%