Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–15 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
30.0% |
28.3–31.8% |
27.8–32.3% |
27.4–32.7% |
26.6–33.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.0% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.1–22.1% |
17.8–22.5% |
17.1–23.2% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.0% |
15.6–18.5% |
15.2–18.9% |
14.9–19.3% |
14.3–20.0% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.7–16.5% |
13.4–16.9% |
13.1–17.3% |
12.5–18.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.0% |
8.0–10.2% |
7.7–10.5% |
7.5–10.8% |
7.0–11.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.0% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.0–6.2% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.5–6.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.1–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
15% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
85% |
85% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
17% |
100% |
|
2 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
17% |
100% |
|
2 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1124
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.95%