Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–18 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.4% |
25.7–29.2% |
25.2–29.8% |
24.8–30.2% |
24.0–31.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.7% |
17.2–20.3% |
16.8–20.7% |
16.4–21.1% |
15.7–21.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.7% |
14.3–17.2% |
14.0–17.7% |
13.6–18.0% |
13.0–18.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
15.7% |
14.3–17.2% |
14.0–17.7% |
13.6–18.0% |
13.0–18.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.8% |
9.6–12.1% |
9.3–12.5% |
9.0–12.8% |
8.5–13.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.9% |
5.9–8.0% |
5.7–8.3% |
5.5–8.6% |
5.1–9.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
55% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
45% |
45% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
46% |
100% |
|
2 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
46% |
100% |
|
2 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1050
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%