Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 19–25 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.8% |
29.9–33.7% |
29.4–34.3% |
29.0–34.8% |
28.1–35.7% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.6% |
19.0–22.3% |
18.6–22.8% |
18.2–23.2% |
17.5–24.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.9% |
16.4–19.5% |
16.0–20.0% |
15.7–20.4% |
15.0–21.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.7% |
12.4–15.2% |
12.0–15.6% |
11.7–16.0% |
11.1–16.7% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.1% |
6.2–8.3% |
5.9–8.6% |
5.7–8.9% |
5.2–9.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.5% |
4.7–6.5% |
4.4–6.8% |
4.3–7.1% |
3.9–7.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.4% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.7–3.4% |
1.6–3.6% |
1.4–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
8% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
10% |
10% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
8% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%