Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 13–19 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
29.5% |
27.7–31.4% |
27.2–31.9% |
26.7–32.4% |
25.9–33.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
26.3% |
24.6–28.2% |
24.1–28.7% |
23.7–29.1% |
22.8–30.0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.3% |
14.9–17.9% |
14.5–18.3% |
14.1–18.7% |
13.5–19.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
12.6% |
11.3–14.0% |
11.0–14.4% |
10.7–14.8% |
10.1–15.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
6.9% |
6.0–8.0% |
5.7–8.4% |
5.5–8.6% |
5.1–9.2% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.1–7.6% |
4.9–7.9% |
4.5–8.4% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 13–19 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.66%