Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–17 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
25.0% |
23.4–26.8% |
22.9–27.3% |
22.5–27.8% |
21.7–28.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
24.0% |
22.4–25.8% |
21.9–26.2% |
21.5–26.7% |
20.8–27.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.0% |
14.6–17.5% |
14.2–17.9% |
13.9–18.3% |
13.3–19.1% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.7–16.5% |
13.3–16.9% |
13.0–17.3% |
12.4–18.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.3% |
9.5–12.7% |
9.2–13.0% |
8.7–13.7% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.9–5.3% |
2.7–5.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.9–5.3% |
2.7–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
99.3% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.7% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
98.8% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
98.8% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1058
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.28%