Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17–24 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
30.0% |
28.2–31.9% |
27.7–32.4% |
27.2–32.9% |
26.4–33.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
23.1% |
21.5–24.9% |
21.0–25.4% |
20.6–25.8% |
19.8–26.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.1% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.2–20.2% |
15.8–20.6% |
15.2–21.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
11.6% |
10.4–13.0% |
10.0–13.4% |
9.8–13.7% |
9.2–14.4% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.2% |
8.1–10.5% |
7.8–10.8% |
7.6–11.2% |
7.1–11.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.8% |
5.0–6.9% |
4.7–7.2% |
4.5–7.4% |
4.1–8.0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.9% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.3–2.8% |
1.2–3.0% |
1.0–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.1% |
99.1% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
76% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
24% |
24% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.1% |
99.1% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
76% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
24% |
24% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 17–24 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.52%