Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–13 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
25.6% |
23.9–27.4% |
23.4–28.0% |
23.0–28.4% |
22.2–29.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
23.6% |
21.9–25.4% |
21.5–25.9% |
21.1–26.3% |
20.3–27.2% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
21.3% |
19.7–23.0% |
19.3–23.5% |
18.9–23.9% |
18.1–24.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.7% |
8.9–12.1% |
8.7–12.5% |
8.1–13.1% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.8% |
8.7–11.1% |
8.4–11.5% |
8.1–11.8% |
7.6–12.5% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.1–7.6% |
4.9–7.9% |
4.5–8.4% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.3–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.1% |
99.2% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
16% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
84% |
84% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
71% |
71% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
56% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
44% |
44% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.1% |
99.2% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
56% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
44% |
44% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 8–13 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.18%