Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–27 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.2%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 22.9% 21.3–24.7% 20.8–25.2% 20.4–25.6% 19.6–26.5%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 2 2 2 2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.8% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Last Result, Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 10% 10% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.8% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 10% 10% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations