Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–17 November 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
19.8% |
18.3–21.5% |
17.9–21.9% |
17.5–22.3% |
16.8–23.2% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
19.8% |
18.3–21.5% |
17.9–21.9% |
17.5–22.3% |
16.8–23.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
18.9% |
17.4–20.5% |
16.9–20.9% |
16.6–21.3% |
15.9–22.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.9% |
14.5–17.4% |
14.1–17.8% |
13.8–18.2% |
13.2–19.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.9% |
10.7–13.2% |
10.3–13.6% |
10.0–14.0% |
9.5–14.7% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
9.9% |
8.8–11.1% |
8.5–11.5% |
8.2–11.8% |
7.7–12.5% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
41% |
100% |
|
2 |
59% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
40% |
100% |
|
2 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
28% |
28% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
98% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
|
1 |
54% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
40% |
100% |
|
2 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
98% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
|
1 |
54% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 November 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%