Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–13 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.1% |
25.3–29.0% |
24.9–29.5% |
24.4–29.9% |
23.6–30.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
22.4% |
20.8–24.2% |
20.3–24.7% |
19.9–25.1% |
19.2–26.0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.7% |
17.2–20.4% |
16.8–20.8% |
16.4–21.2% |
15.7–22.1% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
14.5% |
13.2–16.0% |
12.8–16.4% |
12.5–16.8% |
11.8–17.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.6% |
6.5–9.8% |
6.0–10.5% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.0% |
6.5–9.3% |
6.3–9.6% |
5.9–10.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
62% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
38% |
38% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.4% |
99.5% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
51% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
49% |
49% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.4% |
99.5% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 7–13 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.63%