Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
24.4% |
22.7–26.2% |
22.2–26.7% |
21.8–27.2% |
21.0–28.0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
22.3% |
20.7–24.1% |
20.2–24.6% |
19.8–25.0% |
19.1–25.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.1% |
18.5–21.8% |
18.1–22.3% |
17.7–22.7% |
17.0–23.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
16.9% |
15.5–18.5% |
15.0–19.0% |
14.7–19.4% |
14.0–20.1% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.9% |
6.9–9.1% |
6.6–9.4% |
6.4–9.7% |
5.9–10.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.5% |
4.2–8.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.6% |
1.2–2.2% |
1.1–2.4% |
1.0–2.6% |
0.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
99.1% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.5% |
99.6% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
8% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
8% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 14–20 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%