Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–16 March 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
26.2% |
24.7–27.8% |
24.2–28.3% |
23.9–28.7% |
23.2–29.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
19.2% |
17.8–20.6% |
17.4–21.0% |
17.1–21.4% |
16.4–22.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.1% |
16.8–19.6% |
16.4–20.0% |
16.1–20.3% |
15.5–21.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.1% |
16.8–19.6% |
16.4–20.0% |
16.1–20.3% |
15.5–21.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.1% |
7.2–9.1% |
6.9–9.4% |
6.7–9.7% |
6.3–10.2% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.0% |
5.3–7.0% |
5.0–7.3% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.5–8.0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.2% |
2.8–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
79% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
21% |
21% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
21% |
100% |
|
2 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
47% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
40% |
40% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
40% |
40% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 March 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1274
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.95%