Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 12–20 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
32.9% |
31.4–34.5% |
30.9–35.0% |
30.6–35.4% |
29.8–36.2% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.0% |
15.8–18.3% |
15.4–18.7% |
15.1–19.0% |
14.6–19.6% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
17.0% |
15.8–18.3% |
15.4–18.7% |
15.1–19.0% |
14.6–19.6% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.9% |
14.8–17.2% |
14.4–17.6% |
14.2–17.9% |
13.6–18.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.0% |
6.2–7.9% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.4–8.9% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.0% |
6.2–7.9% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.4–8.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.4–3.9% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.0–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
12% |
12% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
39% |
39% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
38% |
38% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
91% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
9% |
9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
39% |
39% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 12–20 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1461
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%