Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
33.9% |
32.0–35.9% |
31.5–36.4% |
31.0–36.9% |
30.1–37.8% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.7–20.5% |
15.1–21.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
16.8% |
15.4–18.4% |
15.0–18.9% |
14.6–19.3% |
13.9–20.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
10.7% |
9.5–12.1% |
9.2–12.4% |
8.9–12.8% |
8.4–13.4% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.5–10.4% |
7.2–10.7% |
6.7–11.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.3% |
7.3–9.5% |
7.0–9.9% |
6.7–10.2% |
6.3–10.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
93% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
7% |
7% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
61% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
39% |
39% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
12% |
12% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
85% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
15% |
15% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
12% |
12% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.13%