Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 14–20 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
30.0% |
28.5–31.5% |
28.1–32.0% |
27.7–32.3% |
27.0–33.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.0% |
16.8–19.3% |
16.4–19.7% |
16.1–20.0% |
15.6–20.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.0% |
13.9–16.2% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.3–16.9% |
12.7–17.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.0% |
11.9–14.2% |
11.6–14.5% |
11.4–14.8% |
10.9–15.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
11.0% |
10.0–12.1% |
9.7–12.4% |
9.5–12.7% |
9.1–13.2% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.0% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.7–10.5% |
7.2–11.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.0–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
9% |
9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
9% |
9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 14–20 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1501
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.05%