Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
35.5% |
33.6–37.5% |
33.1–38.0% |
32.6–38.5% |
31.7–39.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
19.1% |
17.6–20.8% |
17.1–21.2% |
16.8–21.7% |
16.1–22.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.5% |
13.2–16.0% |
12.8–16.4% |
12.5–16.8% |
11.8–17.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.4% |
9.5–12.8% |
9.2–13.1% |
8.7–13.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.9% |
8.8–11.2% |
8.5–11.6% |
8.2–11.9% |
7.7–12.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.6% |
6.6–8.8% |
6.3–9.1% |
6.1–9.4% |
5.7–10.0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
93% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
7% |
7% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
38% |
38% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
39% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
61% |
61% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.5% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
38% |
38% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.5% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 2–8 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.01%