Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 September–3 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
33.5% |
31.6–35.5% |
31.1–36.0% |
30.6–36.5% |
29.8–37.4% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
27.8% |
26.0–29.7% |
25.5–30.2% |
25.1–30.7% |
24.3–31.6% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
11.9% |
10.7–13.3% |
10.3–13.7% |
10.0–14.1% |
9.5–14.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.4% |
8.3–10.7% |
8.0–11.1% |
7.7–11.4% |
7.3–12.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.3% |
7.3–9.5% |
7.0–9.9% |
6.7–10.2% |
6.3–10.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
5.5% |
4.7–6.5% |
4.4–6.8% |
4.3–7.1% |
3.9–7.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.4% |
1.0–2.0% |
0.9–2.2% |
0.8–2.3% |
0.7–2.7% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98.9% |
99.8% |
Median |
4 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
39% |
39% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.6% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
49% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
39% |
39% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 27 September–3 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%