Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–10 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
32.2% |
30.3–34.1% |
29.8–34.7% |
29.4–35.2% |
28.5–36.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
27.0% |
25.3–28.9% |
24.8–29.4% |
24.3–29.8% |
23.5–30.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
13.9% |
12.6–15.4% |
12.2–15.8% |
11.9–16.2% |
11.3–16.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.1% |
8.0–10.4% |
7.7–10.7% |
7.5–11.1% |
7.0–11.7% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.7% |
6.7–8.9% |
6.4–9.2% |
6.2–9.5% |
5.8–10.1% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.1–7.6% |
4.9–7.9% |
4.5–8.4% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
97% |
99.3% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
40% |
40% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
40% |
40% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 4–10 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.30%