Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–17 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
32.2% |
30.3–34.1% |
29.8–34.7% |
29.4–35.2% |
28.5–36.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
28.8% |
27.0–30.7% |
26.5–31.2% |
26.1–31.7% |
25.2–32.6% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
11.6% |
10.4–13.0% |
10.0–13.4% |
9.8–13.7% |
9.2–14.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.4–10.9% |
6.9–11.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.2% |
7.5–10.5% |
7.3–10.8% |
6.8–11.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
6.4% |
5.5–7.5% |
5.3–7.8% |
5.0–8.1% |
4.6–8.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
40% |
100% |
|
3 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
98% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
40% |
100% |
|
3 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.71%