Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26–31 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.0% |
29.2–32.9% |
28.7–33.5% |
28.2–33.9% |
27.3–34.9% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
28.0% |
26.2–29.9% |
25.7–30.4% |
25.3–30.9% |
24.5–31.8% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.9% |
13.5–16.4% |
13.2–16.9% |
12.8–17.3% |
12.2–18.0% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.4–10.9% |
6.9–11.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.8% |
5.2–9.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
6.9% |
6.0–8.0% |
5.7–8.4% |
5.5–8.6% |
5.1–9.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
96% |
97% |
Median |
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
39% |
100% |
|
3 |
61% |
61% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
40% |
40% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
39% |
100% |
|
3 |
61% |
61% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 26–31 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%