Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–17 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.0% |
29.5–32.5% |
29.0–33.0% |
28.7–33.3% |
28.0–34.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
22.0% |
20.6–23.4% |
20.3–23.8% |
19.9–24.1% |
19.3–24.8% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.9% |
13.8–16.2% |
13.5–16.5% |
13.2–16.8% |
12.7–17.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
12.9–15.2% |
12.6–15.5% |
12.3–15.8% |
11.8–16.4% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.0% |
7.2–9.0% |
6.9–9.2% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.4–10.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
6.0% |
5.2–6.8% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.9–7.3% |
4.5–7.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.0–4.3% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
99.3% |
99.3% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 10–17 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1512
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.13%