Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
32.5% |
30.6–34.4% |
30.1–35.0% |
29.7–35.5% |
28.8–36.4% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
24.3% |
22.6–26.1% |
22.1–26.6% |
21.7–27.1% |
21.0–27.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.1% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.2–20.2% |
15.8–20.6% |
15.2–21.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.7% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.4–10.3% |
7.1–10.6% |
6.6–11.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.4% |
7.4–9.6% |
7.1–10.0% |
6.8–10.3% |
6.4–10.9% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.5% |
4.2–8.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
0.5–2.4% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
99.4% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
61% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
39% |
39% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
39% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2–3 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
39% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 15–21 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.30%