Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–27 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.5% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 14% 100% Last Result
3 86% 86% Median
4 0.1% 0.1% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 98% 100% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 22% 22% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 22% 22% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations