Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 19–26 January 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.5% |
30.1–33.0% |
29.7–33.4% |
29.4–33.7% |
28.7–34.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
19.1% |
18.0–20.4% |
17.6–20.7% |
17.3–21.1% |
16.8–21.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.0% |
14.9–17.2% |
14.6–17.5% |
14.3–17.8% |
13.8–18.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
12.4% |
11.4–13.5% |
11.1–13.8% |
10.9–14.0% |
10.5–14.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.6% |
6.8–8.5% |
6.6–8.7% |
6.4–9.0% |
6.1–9.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.6% |
4.9–6.4% |
4.7–6.6% |
4.6–6.8% |
4.3–7.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.9% |
2.4–3.5% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.2–3.8% |
2.0–4.1% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
3% |
100% |
|
2 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
3% |
100% |
|
2 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 19–26 January 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1720
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.69%