Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 31 January–6 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.9% |
30.1–33.8% |
29.5–34.4% |
29.1–34.9% |
28.2–35.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
22.8% |
21.2–24.6% |
20.7–25.1% |
20.3–25.5% |
19.5–26.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.1% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.2–20.2% |
15.8–20.6% |
15.2–21.4% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.4% |
7.4–9.6% |
7.1–10.0% |
6.8–10.3% |
6.4–10.9% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.1% |
6.2–8.3% |
5.9–8.6% |
5.7–8.9% |
5.2–9.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.8% |
5.2–9.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.9% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.3–2.8% |
1.2–3.0% |
1.0–3.3% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.2–2.7% |
1.1–2.8% |
1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
96% |
99.5% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
4% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
34% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
66% |
66% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
25% |
25% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2–3 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 31 January–6 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.60%